Cloudy days ahead for applications?

I've been thinking a lot recently about the Cloud and its potential as a disruptive technology. I got to wondering about how we arrived at where we are today, and one of my favourite books sprang to mind as a way of articulating that, at least to myself.

To misuse HG Wells ever so slightly, "No one would have believed in the last years of the first decade of the twenty first century that the world of enterprise software was being watched keenly and closely by intelligences greater than man's and yet as mortal as his own; that as men busied themselves about their various concerns they were scrutinised and studied, perhaps almost as narrowly as a man with a microscope might scrutinise the transient creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. With infinite complacency men went to and fro over this globe about their little affairs, serene in their assurance of their empire over middleware. It is possible that the infusoria under the microscope do the same. No one gave a thought to some of the relatively new companies as sources of danger to their empires, or thought of them only to dismiss the idea that they could have a significant impact on the way in which applications could be developed and deployed. Yet across the gulf of cyberspace, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded enterprise applications with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us."

Of course the rise of Cloud practitioners and vendors was in no way as malevolent as the Martians, but the potential impact on the middleware industry may be no less dramatic (or drastic). Plus there was a level of ignorance (arrogance) on behalf of some middleware vendors against the likes of Amazon and Google just as the Victorians believed themselves unassailable and masters of all they surveyed.

But there are still a number of uncertainties around where this new wave is heading. One of them is exactly what does this mean for applications? On the one hand there are those who believe applications and their supporting infrastructure (middleware) must be rewritten from scratch. Then there are others who believe existing applications must be supported. I've said before that I believe as an industry we need to be leveraging what we've been developing for the past few decades. Of course some things need to change and evolve, but if you look at what most people who are using or considering using Cloud expect, it's to be able to take their existing investments and Cloudify them.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. If you look at what happened with the CORBA-to-J2EE transition, or the original reason for the development of Web Services, or even how a lot of the Web works, they're all examples of reusing existing investments to one degree or another. Of course over the years the new (e.g., J2EE) morphed away from the old, presenting other ways in which to develop applications to take advantage of the new and different capabilities those platforms offered. And that will happen with Cloud too, as it evolves over the next few years. But initially, if we're to believe that there are economic benefits to using the Cloud, then they have to support existing applications (of which there are countless), frameworks (of which there are many) and skill sets of the individuals who architect them, implement them and manage them (countless again). It's outsourcing after all.